Week Ahead: Bank of Japan in the Spotlight

BOJ weighing next action after Fed rate hike

The USD is higher across the board after the Fed finally announced its much awaited rate hike. The market had already priced in the 25 basis points rate hike to the Fed funds rate, but the hawkish tone of the FOMC statement, dot plot and Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference have boosted the USD and solidified the strong dollar rally. Improving U.S. economic conditions were cited and the expectation now is of at least 3 rate hikes in 2017. The effect of those improved forecasts have been felt around the globe.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will release its Monetary policy statement and press conference between the end of Monday and the beginning of Tuesday December 20 EST. Analysts are expecting the central bank to keep the quantitative easing unchanged and negative rates on hold. The weak JPY and hawkish U.S. growth expectations have given the BOJ room to hold and even improve its economy assessment.

The Bank of England (BoE) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) both kept their monetary policies unchanged after the Fed and is now up to the Bank of Japan to close the year for major central banks.

The USD/JPY gained 2.116 percent in the week. The Yen is trading at 117.79 on the back of the Fed’s monetary policy decision and the possibility of 3 or more rate hikes in 2017. The biggest event risk will be which decision the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announces. The JPY has lost more than 13 percent since the results of the U.S. election, but a depreciation of the currency has helped the local stock market as an average price of 115 could boost corporate profits as much as 20 percent. The December Tankan survey showed positive business sentiment hitting a one year high which together with the USD strength could delay the BOJ from changing its monetary policy at the end of 2016.

The BOJ is also looking into alternative methods of fighting deflation after its massive QE program started with much promise only to face an uphill battle as global conditions deteriorated. Financial education is now being touted as one possible solution to unlock Japanese savings and put them to work by investing into asset management. There is plenty of scepticism on the results this route taken by the central bank, but after the printing press has not worked as desired, maybe education can be the solution.

The markets are awaiting the final outcome from the BOJ meeting before starting to ease into holiday mode. 2016 has been a bumpy ride from the beginning and traders will be looking for some time off to reflect on the hard lessons of this year and how to apply them to the next one.

Source: marketpulse.com