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FOREX Tech Analysis

Author

bily

| Published on

October 4, 2017

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 14 Sep 17, 1.1890): Pull-back has scope to extend further to 1.1660.

No change in view. We continue to anticipate EUR to extend its recent weakness towards 1.1660. While the odds for a clear break below this level are not high at this stage, they would improve quickly in the coming days unless EUR can reclaim the key resistance at 1.1820 (adjusted from 1.1850). The next support below 1.1660 is at 1.1615.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 26 Sep 17, 1.3475): Bearish if NY closing is below 1.3225.

No change in view. While we have held the view that the pull-back in GBP has “room to extend lower to 1.3265/70” since last Thursday, the pace of decline since then has been more rapid than anticipated. From here, a NY closing below the 1.3225 would indicate that GBP has moved into a bearish phase (with an immediate target of 1.3100). This scenario would not be surprising unless GBP can move and stay above 1.3355 within these 1 to 2 days.

AUD/USD: Bearish (since 22 Sep 17, 0.7930): Diminished odds for further.

AUD weakness. While AUD touched a ‘fresh low’ of 0.7785 yesterday, the weakness was short-lived. We have held the same view that “further weakness to 0.7740 not ruled but odds are not high” since last Friday (29 Sep) and the price action yesterday reinforces our view. From here, downward momentum has waned further and the odds for further extension to 0.7740 have diminished considerably. That said, only a move above 0.7880 would indicate that the bearish phase that started on 22 Sep has ended. Positioning wise, we have suggested exiting half of short position from 0.7930 at 0.7820 and those with remaining short should look to exit the rest of the position if there is another dip to 0.7785/90.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 06 Sep 17, 0.7255): Pull-back has room to extend to 0.7135.

No change in view, see update from yesterday below.

We have held the same view that the current pull-back in NZD “has room to extend to 0.7135” since last Wednesday. There is no change to the outlook even though from here, the odds for a sustained break below this level have increased slightly (there is another strong support at 0.7100). Overall, NZD is expected to stay under pressure in the coming days unless it can reclaim 0.7240 (key resistance adjusted lower from 0.7280).

USD/JPY: Bullish (since 28 Sep 17, 112.80): Diminished odds for further USD strength, long to exit half of position.

Despite overall bullish indications, USD has not been able to make much headway and has struggled to maintain a foothold above 113.00. Upward momentum has been dented and the odds for further extension to 113.80 have diminished. However, only a move below 112.20 (stop-loss level unchanged) would indicate that the bullish phase that started last Friday (see update on 28 Sep) has ended. Positioning wise, those are long from 112.40 may like to exit half of their position at the current level of 112.75.

Source: efxnews.com