Forex Tech Targets

EUR/USD: Bullish (since 15 Jan 18, 1.2195): Rally taking a pause, EUR to consolidate for the next few days. No change in view.While upward momentum is beginning to wane, we continue to view the current movement as part of a short-term consolidation phase and another push higher towards the revised ‘target’ of 1.2570 is not ruled out just yet. That said, EUR has to move higher within the next couple of days or a prolonged consolidation around these level would increase the risk of a top quickly. Conversely, a break of 1.2290 would indicate that the bullish phase that started about two weeks ago (see update on 15 Jan, spot at 1.2195) has ended.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 30 Jan 18, 1.4075): GBP has moved into a consolidation phase.

We just shifted from a bullish to a neutral stance on GBP yesterday (30 Jan) and there is no change to the view. GBP dipped to a low of 1.3980 before staging a surprisingly strong rebound to hit a high of 1.4167. The rapid and sharp swing higher is viewed as part of a consolidation and not a resumption of the recent bullish phase. That said, in view of the elevated volatility, the “relatively broad range of 1.3930/1.4200” highlighted yesterday is probably not ‘broad enough’ to contain the consolidation phase. From here, GBP could continue to trade choppily, likely within a 1.3930/1.4290 range.

AUD/USD: Bullish (since 15 Dec 17, 0.7665): Focus is now at the strong and critical level of 0.8165.

After hitting a high of 0.8136 last Friday (26 Jan), AUD has not been able to make much headway on the upside. The consolidation over the past couple of days has dented the upward momentum and this coupled with overbought conditions has increased the risk of a shortterm top. To put it another way, in order to maintain the current bullish momentum, AUD should not ‘dither’ around as this would lead to a rapid loss in momentum. For now, the focus is still at the strong and critical level of 0.8165 but AUD has to ‘punch’ above 0.8135 within the next 1 to 2 days or the prospect for the current bullish phase to extend further would diminish quickly. On the downside, support is at 0.8045 followed by 0.7990.

NZD/USD: Bullish (since 14 Dec 17, 0.7015): 0.7435/40 is a high hurdle to overcome.

NZD tested the ‘stop-loss’ level for our bullish view of 0.7280 yesterday (exact low of 0.7280). Despite the bounce from the low, upward momentum has deteriorated further and NZD has to continue to march higher in an ‘impulsive’ manner or the risk of clear break of 0.7280 would increase quickly. Resistance is at 0.7390 followed by last week’s peak near 0.7435/40. As highlighted since late last week, 0.7435/40 is acting as a very strong resistance and this hurdle would be difficult to overcome.

USD/JPY:  Bearish (since 25 Jan 18, 109.30): Next ‘target’ at 107.30 unlikely to come into the picture so soon. No change in view.Despite hitting a ‘fresh’ low of 108.27 last Friday, downward momentum is not as impulsive as preferred and we continue to hold the view that the next ‘target’ at 107.30 is unlikely to come into the picture so soon. On a shorter-term note, 108.00 is a strong support and this level could hold out for a few more days. In other words, USD could trade sideways at these lower levels first before staging the next ‘leg’ lower towards 107.30. ‘Stop-loss’ for the bearish view is unchanged at 110.30 for now.

Source:efxdata.com