FOREX Tech Targets

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Pressure shifts to the downside, expect further weakness to 1.2212.

We highlighted last Friday that the near-term bias is “tilted to the downside but any weakness is viewed as part of a 1.2260/1.2400 sideway trading range instead of a sustained decline”. However, the subsequent rapid pace of decline that hit a low of 1.2248 came as a surprise. The immediate pressure has shifted to the downside and from here; we expect further EUR weakness towards the month-todate low of 1.2212. Further extension to last month’s 1.2153 low is not ruled out but at based on the current momentum indicators, the odds for such a move are not very high. All in, we expect EUR to stay under pressure in the coming days unless it can reclaim the ‘key resistance’ at 1.2355.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): GBP under pressure, further weakness seems likely.

We highlighted last Friday that GBP is under pressure and further weakness towards 1.4000 seems likely. While our anticipation is correct, the rapid pace of the drop was not exactly expected as GBP hit a low of 1.3985 during NY hours. Despite the sharp decline, we continue to hold the view that the odds for a sustained break below the month-to-date low of 1.3965 are not high. That said, a break of this strong support would shift the focus to 1.3900. All in, we continue to expect GBP to stay under pressure unless it can reclaim 1.4130 (‘key resistance’ was at 1.4200 last Friday).

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 22 Mar 18, 0.7770): AUD under pressure but major 0.7600 unlikely to come into the picture for now.

While we noted last Friday that the “near-term bias is on the downside” and “any weakness is viewed as part of a 0.7645/0.7785 consolidation range”, the subsequent pace of the decline was more rapid than anticipated as AUD hit a low of 0.7655. For now, we continue to hold the same view and while an intraday dip below 0.7645 would not be surprising, we not expect the next major support at 0.7600 to come into the picture for now. However, the current mild downward pressure is expected to improve further unless AUD can surmount the ‘key resistance’ at 0.7735 from here.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): A deeper down-move towards 0.7190 seems likely. No change in view.Our recent expectation for consolidation was proven wrong as NZD plunged to a low of 0.7260 yesterday. The rapid pick-up in downward momentum has shifted the immediate pressure to the downside. From here, a deeper down-move towards 0.7190 would not be surprising but at this stage, a break of last month’s 0.7155 low seems unlikely. Overall, NZD is expected to remain under pressure unless it can reclaim 0.7330

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): Scope for rebound to extend to 108.60.

USD is currently holding just below the top of our expected 106.20/107.90 consolidation range. The relatively strong daily closing on Friday has improved the outlook and while there is no change to the neutral outlook, there is scope for the current rebound to extend higher toward 108.60. At this stage, a sustained move above this level seems unlikely. On the downside, only a move below 107.00 would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.

Source:efxdata.com