Forex Tech Targets

EUR/USD: Bullish (since 15 Jan 18, 1.2195): Rally taking a pause, EUR to consolidate for the next few days.

While upward momentum is beginning to wane, we continue to view the current movement as part of a short-term consolidation phase and another push higher towards the revised ‘target’ of 1.2570 is not ruled out just yet. That said, EUR has to move higher within the next couple of days or a prolonged consolidation around these level would increase the risk of a top quickly. Conversely, a break of 1.2290  would indicate that the bullish phase that started about two weeks ago (see update on 15 Jan, spot at 1.2195) has ended.

GBP/USD: Shift from bullish to NEUTRAL: GBP has moved into a consolidation phase.

The pull-back from last week’s 1.4346 high went deeper than expected and took out the ‘stop-loss’ level for our bullish view at 1.4030 yesterday (overnight low of 1.4026). The bullish phase that started about 2 weeks ago has ended and last week’s 1.4346 high is deemed as an interim top. In other words, GBP has moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways for now, likely within a relatively broad range of 1.3930/1.4200. Looking further ahead, further GBP strength is not ruled out but 1.4346 is acting as a very strong resistance now and this level is unlikely to be challenged, at least not for the next 1 to 2 weeks. 

AUD/USD: Bullish (since 15 Dec 17, 0.7665): Focus is now at the strong and critical level of 0.8165. No change in view. AUD dipped to a low of 0.8005 last Friday before staging a strong rally that cracked the 2017 peak of 0.8125 (high of 0.8136 during NY hours). The sudden sharp ‘boost’ in upward momentum came as a surprise and the focus is now at 0.8165, the minor peak back in May 2015. This is a rather strong and critical resistance and a clear break of this level could lead to further rapid rise towards the 2015 peak of 0.8295. In other words, while the current bullish phase is moving into its sixth week, there appears to be room for further AUD strength and only a break 0.7990 would indicate that a top is in place.

NZD/USD: Bullish (since 14 Dec 17, 0.7015): 0.7435/40 is a high hurdle to overcome. No change in view.We indicated  that a break of 0.7365 would indicate the bullish phase in NZD has scope to extend further towards the Sep 2017 high of 0.7435. NZD took a peek above this level (high of 0.7437) but got slammed down on the back of the weak NZ inflation data. While the bullish phase that started in the mid-Dec is still intact, 0.7435/40 is acting as a very strong resistance now and would be a high hurdle to overcome. That said, a break of this level could open up the way for a move towards the 2017 peak of 0.7557.

USD/JPY: Bearish (since 25 Jan 18, 109.30): Next ‘target’ at 107.30 unlikely to come into the picture so soon. No change in view.Despite hitting a ‘fresh’ low of 108.27 last Friday, downward momentum is not as impulsive as preferred and we continue to hold the view that the next ‘target’ at 107.30 is unlikely to come into the picture so soon. On a shorter-term note, 108.00 is a strong support and this level could hold out for a few more days. In other words, USD could trade sideways at these lower levels first before staging the next ‘leg’ lower towards 107.30. ‘Stop-loss’ for the bearish view is unchanged at 110.30 for now.

Source:efxdata.com