Forex Tech Targets

EUR/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW EUR is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 1.1245/1.1290. EUR traded in a relatively quiet manner between 1.1236 and 1.1275, narrower than our expected sideway trading range of 1.1225/1.1280. The price action offers no fresh clue and we continue to expect EUR to trade sideways for now, albeit likely at a higher range of 1.1245/1.1290.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW EUR is expected to trade sideways. EUR did not do much last Friday, dipping to 1.1236 before recovering to end the day slightly higher at 1.1269 (+0.15%). For now, we continue to hold the same view from last Thursday (11 Jul, spot at 1.1255) wherein EUR is expected to trade sideways between 1.1200 and 1.1310. At this stage, there is no early indication on which side of the range is more ‘vulnerable’.

GBP/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW GBP could test 1.2600 but a sustained rise above this level is unlikely. Expectation for GBP to trade sideways was incorrect as it staged a relatively strong advance and touched 1.2580. The up-move appears to be running ahead of itself and while a test of 1.2600 is not ruled out, a sustained rise above this level is unlikely (next resistance is at 1.2630). Support is at 1.2540 followed by 1.2510.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW GBP is expected to trade sideways. We held the view last Friday (12 Jul, spot at 1.2525) that “the recent downward pressure has eased” and that GBP is “expected to trade sideways, likely within a relatively broad range of 1.2440/1.2600”. While there is no change to our view, the rapid pace of which GBP move towards the top of the range at 1.2600 was not exactly expected (high of 1.2580 during NY hours on Friday). Looking ahead, GBP has to move and stay above 1.2630 in order to indicate that it is ready for a more sustained rebound. Meanwhile, we continue to expect GBP to trade sideways, likely within 1.2470/1.2600 (narrowed from 1.2440/1.2600).

AUD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW Scope for AUD to test the major 0.7050 resistance but a sustained rise above this level is unlikely. The strong gains in AUD that hit a high of 0.7025 last Friday came as a surprise. While the rapid rise appears to be running too fast, too soon, there is scope for AUD to test the major 0.7050 resistance. For today, a sustained rise above this level is unlikely (next resistance is at 0.7070). On the downside, a break of 0.6985 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased (minor support is at 0.7000).

1-3 WEEKS VIEW AUD is expected to trade sideways. While there is no change to our view from last Friday (12 Jul, spot at 0.6975) wherein AUD is expected to “trade in an undecided manner within a broad 0.6910/0.7050 range”, the rapid pace of which AUD move towards the top of the range was not exactly expected (high of 0.7025 during NY hours on Friday). For now, we continue to hold the same view unless AUD break above the major 0.7050/70 resistance zone. At this stage, the risk for a clear break of this zone is not high but it would continue to rise if AUD can continue hold above 0.6960 within these few days.

NZD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW Up-move is overbought but NZD could extend its gain to 0.6710. Against our expectation for sideway-trading, NZD rose to 0.6697 before ending the day on a firm note at 0.6696. While overbought, NZD could extend its gain but for today, the prospect for a sustained move above 0.6710 is not high (next resistance is at 0.6725). On the downside, a break of 0.6670 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW NZD is expected to trade sideways for a period. While NZD is approaching the top of our expected sideway-trading range of 0.6610/0.6710 (high of 0.6697 last Friday), upward momentum has not improved by all that much. That said, NZD could edge above 0.6710 but it has registered a NY closing above last week’s peak near 0.6740 in order to indicate that is ready for sustained advance. The prospect for such a scenario is not high for now but it would continue to rise if NZD can continue to hold above 0.6640 within these few days.

USD/JPY:

24-HOUR VIEW USD could extend its decline and test the strong support at 107.50. The rapid and sharp decline in USD last Friday came as a surprise. Downward momentum has improved and from here, barring a move above 108.25 (minor resistance is at 108.10), USD could extend its decline and test the strong support at 107.50.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW USD is expected to trade sideways. Despite the relative sharp decline last Friday (107.89, -0.54%), we continue to hold the same view as from last Thursday (11 Jul, 108.30) wherein USD is expected to trade sideways within a relatively broad 107.50/108.95 range. A test of the bottom of the range would not be surprising but a sustained decline below the next support at 107.20 is unlikely.

Source:efxdata

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