Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 18.07.2019

24-HOUR VIEW EUR is expected to trade sideways, likely between 1.1200 and 1.1245. Yesterday, we were of the view the “weakness in EUR is expected to extend lower but major 1.1180 support is unlikely to yield so easily”. While EUR subsequently dipped below 1.1200 (low of 1.1198), it recovered quickly to end the day little changed at 1.1223. Downward pressure has eased with the recovery and the current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, EUR is expected to trade sideways for today, likely between 1.1200 and 1.1245.


1-3 WEEKS VIEW EUR is expected to trade with a ‘downside bias’ but is unlikely to challenge 1.1100. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

After trading in a relatively subdued manner for a few days, EUR staged a surprisingly sudden and sharp decline and tested the bottom of our expected 1.1200/1.1310 sideway trading range (first indicated last Thursday,11 Jul, spot at 1.1255). From here, a move below 1.1200 and the mid-June low near 1.1180 would not be surprising. However, downward momentum is not as strong as we prefer and EUR is unlikely to ‘accelerate’ lower. Overall, EUR is expected to trade with a ‘downside bias’ for now but is unlikely to challenge the year-to-date low near 1.1100 (there is another support at 1.1155). On the upside, only a move above the strong 1.1260 resistance would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW GBP is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 1.2400/1.2460 range. Expectation for GBP to “weaken further to 1.2365” did not materialize as it staged a relatively robust and rapid rebound after touching 1.2382. Downward momentum has more or less dissipated and GBP is deemed to have moved into a consolidation phase for now. For today, GBP is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 1.2400/1.2460 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW GBP is in a ‘negative phase’, could trade towards 1.2340. GBP edged to a fresh low of 1.2382 before recovering. For now, there is no change to our view from yesterday (see reproduced update below).

We indicated yesterday (16 Jul, spot at 1.2515) that “a dip below 1.2470 is not ruled but GBP has to register a NY closing below 1.2440 in order to indicate that it is ready to move below the year-to-date low near 1.2410”. However, the rapid pace of how the price action evolved was unexpected as GBP plunged to a 27-month low of 1.2396 (before closing -0.89% lower at 1.2405, the largest 1-day decline in almost 4 months). The sharp decline indicates that the ‘sideway-trading phase’ that started last Friday (12 Jul, spot at 1.2525) has ended earlier than expected. From here, GBP is deemed to have move into a ‘negative phase’ and could move to 1.2340. On the upside, only a break of the 1.2490 ‘key resistance’ would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased. On a shorter-term note, 1.2460 is already a strong resistance level.

AUD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW AUD is expected to trade sideways, likely between 0.7000 and 0.7040. AUD traded between 0.6996 and 0.7025 yesterday, narrower than our expected sideway trading range of 0.6995/0.7040. Momentum indicators are still mostly ‘neutral’ and we continue to expect AUD to trade sideways for now, likely between 0.7000 and 0.7040.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW Sustained AUD strength is only likely if it can move and stay above the major 0.7050/70 resistance zone. There is no change to our view from Tuesday (16 Jul, spot at 0.7040). As highlighted, while upward momentum has improved, we have doubts about the sustainability of the advance in AUD. The concern is primarily due to the major resistance zone of 0.7050/70. The 0.7050 level was tested a few times in the past couple of months and held (see annotations in chart below). The 0.7070 level is the minor peak in April as well as a declining trend-line resistance (not visible in the chart below). The price action in AUD over the past couple of days appears to suggest that AUD is ‘hesitating’ below this major resistance zone. That said, the risk for an upside break is still intact as long as 0.6980 is not taken out (no change in level from Tuesday). Looking ahead, if AUD were to move and stay above 0.7070, it would suggest last month’s 0.6832 low could be a significant bottom and AUD could move beyond the next major resistance at 0.7110 in the coming weeks.

NZD/USD:  

24-HOUR VIEW NZD could strengthen but any advance is viewed as a higher trading range of 0.6710/0.6750. Instead of trading sideways, NZD briefly rose to 0.6745 before easing off. Despite the ‘positive’ price action, upward momentum has not improved by much. From here, NZD could edge above the 0.6745 peak but any advance is viewed as a higher 0.6710/0.6750 range (a sustained rise beyond 0.6750 is not expected).

1-3 WEEKS VIEW Sustained NZD strength only if NZD were to close above 0.6740 in NY. The underlying tone in NZD continues to improve as it touched a 3-month high of 0.6745 before ending the day at 0.6732 (+0.50%). For now, we continue to prefer to wait for a NY closing above 0.6740 (see update from Tuesday, 16 Jul, spot at 0.6720) before adopting a more positive stance. The prospect for such a scenario has improved and would increase further as long as 0.6685 (level was at 0.6670 on Tuesday) remains intact within these few days. Looking ahead, if NZD were to close above 0.6740, a break of 0.6780 would not be surprising.

USD/JPY:

24-HOUR VIEW USD could probe 107.70 but the next support at 107.50 is likely out of reach. Expectation for USD to “test 108.50” was incorrect as it retreated after touching 108.32 and dropped to an overnight low of 107.94. Downward momentum has ticked up albeit not by much and this would likely lead to a probe of 107.70. The next support at 107.50 is likely out for reach. Resistance is at 108.10 followed by 108.35.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW USD is expected to trade sideways. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

There is not much to add as USD traded in an ‘erratic’ manner as it recouped most of last Friday’s decline (closed at 108.22, +0.29%). For now, we continue to hold the same view from last Thursday (11 Jul, spot at 108.30) wherein USD is expected to trade sideways within a 107.50/108.95 range. Looking forward, the risk of a break of the top of the range first appears to be higher. However, USD has to close above 109.00 in order to indicate that it is ready to challenge 109.60. Meanwhile, the 107.50/108.95 range could remain intact, at least for a few more days.

Source:efxdata

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