Forex Tech Targets

EUR/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW EUR could dip below the strong 1.1200 support but 1.1180 is unlikely to come into the picture. We highlighted last Friday that EUR “could continue to trade in a choppy manner”. EUR subsequently surrendered all of its Thursday (18 Jul) gain as it dropped to a 1.1202 during late NY hours. While the outlook remains mixed, the slightly weakened underlying tone suggests EUR could dip below the strong 1.1200 support. That said, the next support at 1.1180 is unlikely to come into the picture. Resistance is at 1.1235 by followed by 1.1265.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW EUR is expected to trade with sideways. EUR surrendered almost all of last Thursday’s (18 Jul) gain as it practically ‘mirrored’ Thursday range on Friday but settled on a soft note (NY close of 1.1220, -0.48%). As highlighted in our update earlier on Friday (18 Jul, spot at 1.1225), the “outlook for EUR is mixed” and it is “likely to trade sideways in an ‘undecided’ manner”. That said, after Friday’s price action, EUR could trade at a lower range of 1.1160/1.1300 instead of the 1.1200/1.1320 expected previously.

GBP/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW GBP is expected to trade sideways, likely between 1.2460 and 1.2550. Expectation for GBP to “edge above 1.2580” did not materialize as it slipped to a low of 1.2476 before recovering. Mixed momentum indicators suggests the current movement is part of a consolidation phase. In other words, GBP is expected to trade sideways for today, likely between 1.2460 and 1.2550.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW GBP is likely to trade sideways. There is not much to add to last Friday’s (18 Jul, spot at 1.2540) update. As highlighted, while last Tuesday’s low of 1.2382 could be a short-term bottom, it is too early to expect a sustained rebound. However, the underlying tone is on the positive side and this could lead to GBP testing the top of the expected sideway trading range of 1.2430/1.2640 first.

AUD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW AUD is expected to continue to trade sideways, likely within a 0.7020/0.7065 range. Last Friday, we held the view that the “short-term rally is running ahead of itself” and that “AUD is more likely to consolidate its gains and trade sideways”. AUD subsequently traded between 0.7038 and 0.7082, relatively close to our expected 0.7035/0.7085 range. The consolidation phase appears incomplete and AUD is expected to continue to trade sideways for now, albeit likely at a lower range of 0.7020/0.7065.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW Strong upward pressure could lead AUD to 0.7110. No change in view from last Friday, see reproduced update below.

After ‘hesitating’ below the major 0.7050/70 resistance zone for a couple of days, AUD suddenly blew past these major resistance levels and closed at a 3-month high of 0.7075 (thanks to dovish Fed-speak). As highlighted since Tuesday (16 Jul, spot at 0.7040), if AUD were to move and stay above 0.7070, it could extend its gains to 0.7110. All in, the mid to long-term outlook for AUD has turned brighter and if it can clear the major 0.7110 hurdle, it would suggest last month’s 0.6832 low could be a significant bottom (from the perspective of multiweeks). Meanwhile, the strong upward pressure in AUD could carry it higher to 0.7110 (next resistance is at 0.7150). On the downside, only a break of the 0.7000 ‘key support’ (level was a strong support at 0.6980 yesterday) would indicate that the current ‘positive phase’ in AUD has ended.

NZD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW NZD is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 0.6740/0.6780 range. NZD traded between 0.6759 and 0.6789 last Friday, narrower than our expected 0.6755/0.6795 range. The consolidation phase appears incomplete and NZD is expected to continue to trade sideways, albeit likely at a lower range of 0.6740/0.6780.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW Chance for NZD to extend its gains to 0.6815, as high as 0.6835. No change in view from last Friday, see reproduced update below.

We have held the same view since Tuesday (16 Jul, spot at 0.6720) wherein a “sustained NZD strength only if NZD were to close above 0.6740 in NY”. We added yesterday (18 Jul, spot at 0.6730) that “if NZD were to close above 0.6740, a break of 0.6780 would not be surprising”. NZD subsequently surged during NY hours yesterday and quickly exceeded 0.6780 (high of 0.6786). The faster than expected pace of advance has resulted in a strong pick-up in momentum and from here, we see chance for NZD to extend its gains to 0.6815, even as high as 0.6835. Only a break of the 0.6725 ‘key support’ (level was a strong support at 0.6685 yesterday) would indicate that the current ‘positive phase’ has ended.

USD/JPY:

24-HOUR VIEW USD could test 108.00 but any advance is viewed as a higher trading range of 107.40/108.00. Expectation for USD to “dip below 107.20” did not materialize as it rebounded strongly to high of 107.96 during NY hours. The recovery is running ahead of itself and while a test of 108.00 would not be surprising, any USD strength is viewed as a higher trading range of 107.40/108.00 and not the start of sustained up-move.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW USD is expected to trade with a downside bias. There is not much to add to the update from last Friday (19 Jul, spot at 107.40). As highlighted, despite the sharp decline on Thursday, we have doubts about the sustainability of any USD weakness. That said, the immediate bias is tilted to the downside but the prospect for a sustained decline below June’s low of 106.77 is not high. On the upside, only a move above the 108.20 resistance would indicate that the current downward bias has eased.

Source: efxnews

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