FOREX Tech Targets

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR has likely moved into a consolidation phase.

There is not much to add as EUR eked out a fresh 2-week high of 1.1359 before easing off to end the day little changed at 1.1336 (+0.09%). We continue to hold the same view as last Wednesday (13 Mar, spot at 1.1285) wherein EUR has “moved into a consolidation phase” and is expected to trade sideways. In view of the low volatility, our expected 1.1230/1.1380 range is likely enough to contain the movement in EUR for several more days. Looking ahead, the prospect for a break of 1.1380 first is slightly higher but in view of the current lackluster momentum, any advance is expected to struggle to move beyond the next major resistance at 1.1420 (the late-Feb peak).

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): GBP is expected to trade with a positive bias. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

Volatility eased further as GBP traded within a range of less 100 pips last Friday (between 1.3204 and 1.3300), the narrowest daily range for the whole of last week. We continue to view the price action as part of sideway trading phase that could last for another couple of days but in the longer run, we still expect GBP to trade with a ‘positive bias’ (see update from last Wed, 14 Mar, spot at 1.3290). As highlighted, a break of last week’s 1.3380 peak could lead to further GBP strength to 1.3470. On the downside, the ‘key support’ has moved higher to 1.3100 from 1.3050. Only a break of the ‘key support’ would suggest that GBP has made a short-term top.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): AUD is expected to trade sideways.

AUD tested the top of our expected 0.7000/0.7120 range as it touched 0.7119 before easing off quickly. The advance lacks momentum and is unlikely to be sustained. In other words, the price action reinforces our view as highlighted last Wednesday (13 Mar, spot at 0.7070) wherein there is no directional bias and AUD is expected to trade sideways. However, we have adjusted the expected range to 0.7040/0.7140.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 07 Dec 18, 0.6880): NZD has moved into a consolidation phase. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

There is not much to add as NZD traded in a quiet manner last Friday and registered an ‘inside day’. The price action reinforces our view from last Tuesday (12 Mar, spot at 0.6835) wherein NZD has “moved into a consolidation phase”. In other words, we continue to expect NZD to trade sideways even though a 0.6775/0.6885 range is likely enough to contain the price action for the next several days (narrowed from 0.6750/0.6885 previously). Looking forward, the prospect for a break of 0.6885 first appears to be higher but in view of the lackluster momentum, any gain is expected to struggle to move beyond the solid resistance zone of 0.6805/20.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Bias is tilted to the upside but advance could be limited and short-lived.

After rising relatively quickly to a high of 111.89 last Friday (15 Mar(, USD has not been able to make much headway. While we continue to hold the view that the “bias is tilted the upside”, upward pressure has waned considerably. That said, as long as 110.80 is intact, we continue to see chance for a higher USD even though any advance could be short-lived and limited to a test of 112.40. Overall, USD has to move and stay above 111.65 or the prospect a higher USD would diminish quickly.

Source:

‍